The Honest Truth About Super Bowl Viewership Numbers

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Friends,

What if I told you slightly over 96 million people watched Super Bowl LV last weekend, which made it the least-watched NFL championship game in well over a decade.

Well, I’m sure you’ve heard “the NFL is dying” or some other variation of the “hot takes” that seem to be spreading throughout Twitter.

The problem?

It’s much more complicated than that.

Today, I’ll run through the numbers, add some much-needed context, and hopefully provide a well-framed argument as to my personal belief — that the NFL isn’t going anywhere.

Let’s dig in…

First, let’s start with some context.

Similar to other US professional sports leagues, the NFL saw a viewership decline during the regular season — about 7% in total when in comparison to the 2019 season.

As for the Super Bowl, it wasn’t much better.

Over 96 million people watched the championship game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs last weekend, making it the least-watched Super Bowl since 2007.

That’s obviously not great.

Sure, viewership numbers are down, albeit in a pretty significant capacity compared to previous Super Bowl totals, but the real question becomes — why?

The popular take is that the decline in youth sports participation has been accelerated by the pandemic, and survey research indicates that almost 50% of Gen Z respondents (Ages 13-23) don’t even consider themselves sports fans.

That’s all true, but let’s be honest, this year, it’s much more complicated than that.

Here’s a good visual depicting how sports viewership trended throughout 2020 — a year unlike any other in sports history due to COVID-19.

My point?

Outside of a few golf events, the WNBA Finals, and NASCAR, every single sports viewership category was down more than the NFL this past year — including the MLB, NHL, NBA, College Football, and more.

Why did no one yell that hockey was dying when Stanley Cup viewership dropped 61% year-over-year?

Well, because it’s not true.

With sports in general, 2020 was a year unlike any other.

For the first time in the history of North American sports, we had a period of time where all of the following sports were occurring during the same period:

• NBA

• NFL

• MLB

• MLS

• NCAAF

• Tennis

• Golf

• Horse Racing

• Auto Racing

• Rugby

• Cycling

All eleven sports weren’t technically being played on the same day, but the point is that the supply and demand equation fundamentally shifted when it comes to sports viewership.

Everyone has a decision to make when they turn on the TV, with more supply (sports available), that shifted the demand for individual sports, like the NFL, downward.

With sporadic TV data and no accurate way to capture the shift, some will claim it doens’t exist. Basic principles of supply & demand say otherwise.

Besides increased options and general viewership fatigue, data also tells us that cord-cutting is a contributing factor.

Here’s what I mean…

The continued emergence of cord-cutting shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone — this is a trend that has been occurring for years and will potentially continue for decades.

Here’s a mind-blowing statistic — based on the current rate of cable-cutting and the newer generation’s lack of signing up in the first place, within ten years, it’s estimated there will only be a 50/50 chance the home you walk into will have cable (Source).

So if we know that cord-cutting has been occurring at a continuous rate for years, how does that have an impact on the significant drop in NFL viewership?

Acceleration.

In case you haven’t noticed, we’ve officially entered a recession. As impacted individuals attempt to navigate one of the most difficult times in personal financial history, we’ve seen an increased cost-cutting rate — specifically when it comes to cable.

Here’s some supporting evidence (Source):

It’s just one factor, among many others, but the acceleration of cord-cutting is certainly contributing to the decline in NFL viewership — especially when you consider that the majority of cord-cutters turn to the illegal streaming of live events, which aren’t counted in viewership data.

The funniest part of this entire equation?

Even in its worst year, the Super Bowl will be the most-watched TV broadcast of the year by a mile — despite a blowout negatively impacting average viewership totals.

Here are the most-watched television broadcasts in US history (Source).

In the end, whether the decline was due to viewership fatigue, a blowout loss, the inability to host super bowl parties, or any of the other 100 potential reasons, my point revolves around the uncertainty with broadcast viewership numbers.

Simply put, anyone who tells you that they know for sure why viewership numbers are up or down for a particular game or event is lying.

Why?

There are too many factors.

Have a great weekend, and since Presidents’ Day is Monday, we’ll talk Tuesday.

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