The $150,000 Decision NFL Rookies Have 48 Hours To Make

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Friends,

From pro bowl appearances to career threatening injuries, NFL All-Pro player Chris Harris Jr. has experienced it all. In today’s article, “Don’t Call Me Underrated”, Harris gives a first person perspective on the challenges undrafted free agents face when trying to accomplish their NFL dream.

NFL Officially Sets Player Opt-Out Guidelines

As the NFL and NFLPA continue to work out the details of a return to work scenario, initial guidelines started to emerge regarding a players ability to opt-out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19 concerns.

Here’s how it works (Source):

• Players have until August 1, at 5pm ET to opt out of the 2020 NFL season.

• Players who opt out will receive a $150,000 stipend for 2020 — minus any amounts already received by the player in 2020.

• Once a player notifies the team of his decision to opt out, it becomes irrevocable and the player will not have the ability to play in 2020.

• A player who opts out will have his contract toll for a full year.

Who Should Consider Opting Out?

There are two groups that should consider opting out of the 2020 NFL season:

• Players that don’t feel comfortable playing due to underlying medical conditions or their inability to keep their family healthy.

• Undrafted free agents who want to lock in their 2020 earnings through the stipend loophole.

The latter, undrafted free agents looking to take advantage of the stipend loophole, is slightly more controversial. Let’s take a deeper dive into why they should consider it.

It’s Not That Complicated

In my mind, the decision is actually much easier than others might think. Let’s look at the facts:

• An undrafted free agent typically receives a $1,000 to $15,000 signing bonus.

• An undrafted free agent has a 15-20% chance of making the team in some capacity (active roster, practice squad, IR, etc.).

The problem? With COVID-19 sweeping across the country, the 2020 NFL season will be anything but normal.

Here’s why undrafted rookie free agents should consider it:

• With the NFL eliminating preseason games entirely, UDFA’s won’t have the game reps to showcase their ability and increase their chance of making the roster.

• If there are no preseason games, players wont have NFL film to show opposing teams that might be interested in signing them once injuries occur. This should increase the amount of mid-level veterans kept on rosters and decrease the amount of UDFA’s.

• Not only is the preseason cancelled, there are only 2 weeks of real practice before the first regular season game - further reducing their opportunity to make an impression.

• In times of uncertainty, Coaches and GM’s will inherently be incentivized to stick with veteran players or draft picks they’ve invested in.

One important point to note is that accepting the $150,000 stipend doesn’t eliminate your dream of becoming an NFL player, it simply delays it a year - which you’re compensated $150,000 for.

Don’t believe me on how difficult it will be for UDFA’s? Take it from Geoff Schwartz who had an 8 year NFL career after making the practice squad his rookie year.

A Sense Of Urgency

To make matters worse, the NFL announced last night that team rosters need to be cut down from 90 players to 80 before the start of camp. With 32 teams, that means 320 players are going to be unemployed within the next ~48 hours, most of them being undrafted rookie free agents. In simple terms, their timetable to make a decision was just shortened by a week.

So the question becomes, do you take the $150,000 stipend immediately and try again next year? Or do you attempt to make the roster and potentially risk being cut within the next 48 hours for no compensation?

I imagine most players have too much confidence in their ability, but don’t be surprised if some players end up taking the stipend.

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Extra Credit

The Minnesota Vikings started a Tik Tok over the weekend and asked fans to show themselves catching passes from QB Kirk Cousins - the responses didn’t disappoint.

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